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Original: 7/17/2007 3:38 AM
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Tuesday, July 17, 2007

2036 HK Population

 

Just read the press release on Hong Kong Population Projections 2007-2036, haven't and probably won't go into its assumption and methodology, but it trigger some thoughts.

In 30 years time, this tiny island will have 1mil more residence. Where are they going to stay? We probably can't reclaim more land at the harbour, so either there will be more "New Town", "Redeveoped Urban Area" or "Lux apartments at Mid-Level" which likely means more and higher buildings, worse vantilation in the city, more smoggy air, hotter streets. (it's even worse when Oberservatory project Winter will vanish in HK in 40 years) Argh!!!

In 30 years time, we will have aging population. Elderly dependency ratio get more than a double and it seems no chance to be balanced. Not only the projection of  0-14 child percentage remain 12%, but also the Sex ratio.

In 30 years time, every 1000 female, there will be only 763 male (excluding foreign domestic helpers already, if not, the stat is 1000 female: 709 male), which I see it an implication of less pregnancy unless there will be a drastic chnage in socio / life stage pattern. And I guess no doubt the trend is local male will marry mainland sweety ladies and move north; whereas women here yet to see Mainland guys, stay here and become (or have to become) career women.

 Posted 7/17/2007 3:38 AM - 57 Views - 4 eProps - 4 comments

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Visit lisatdp's Xanga Site!
I understand that it is the opposite problem of gender imbalance most places in the mainland. Perhaps, by then, the mainland will be better integrated and govt will give some special incentives for the young women of HK to work in the mainland, even consider settling there? Or possibly the other way around, except for the overpopulation problems you bring up. Or maybe the govt will keep the genders as imbalanced as possible to encourage low birth rate??
Posted 7/17/2007 8:45 AM by lisatdp - reply

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Thanks Lisa. Yea, you are right, may be 30 years later, young women will settle in mainland, then there will be less gender imbalance in this tiny city. Or it's even become not important for a tiny city having the problem of gender imbalance when the whole country is having much serious same problem, the opposite way.

For the encouraging low birth rate and overpopulation, interesting .... but, I dun think so... because low birth rate will carry drawback of overpopulation anyway and also problems of aging population.

Posted 7/17/2007 9:07 AM by Milial - reply

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Interesting... didn't read the report, but does it address possible solutions for the lack of land problem?
Posted 7/18/2007 1:08 PM by cheburrrashka - reply

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um... no, it's a descriptive projection, but no doubt respective persons would take that for policy-making and so.

Posted 7/21/2007 4:15 AM by Milial - reply


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